The returns of firms’ corporate bonds predict their future stock returns, especially for firms with low credit ratings and distressed fundamentals. Predictability is amplified when bond volume is high relative to stock volume, and when bond traders are larger, and is stronger for firms with lottery-like stock characteristics that attract retail traders. These findings suggest that informed bond trading transmits valuable information that equity markets incorporate with a delay due to noise. Stronger predictability around earnings announcements supports the view that bond markets reflect firm-specific cash flow information rather than changes in risk premia.
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